08-30-2019, 04:35 PM
Guide to demographic survey for regional and urban planning
Long range comprehensive planning cannot perhaps be undertaken in a rational and realistic manner unless it bases itself upon the fundamental facts of population growth. This highlights the great significance that attaches to population projections or estimates. At the same time it has to be appreciated that population projection is no easy job and that even the best known demographers' forecasts have more often than not gone wide off the mark. The complexities of the demographic models and formula apart, this limitation is inherent in all the phenomena that concern human beings. It is difficult to define their future. This limitation, therefore, cannot hold the work of population projection at ransom. Population projections are needed and have to be made, of course, without illusions.
Demographers have, though; long and varied experience evolved a number of widely accepted methods of population projection. Most of these methods are highly complex and require expert handling. Many of them call for various data which may not be readily available. These difficulties must, therefore, limit the choice in the selection of a suitable method or methods of population estimation.
A few simpler methods which should, by and large, serve the needs of planners are discussed below:
These methods of calculating current or future population may be broadly divided into the following three groups:
1. Mathematical Methods,
2. Component Method,
3. Ratio Method.
Component Method
Component Method is generally considered the most satisfactory approach to population projection It involves a separate analysis of the changes affecting each component of population viz., fertility, mortality and migration. Separate projections for each ethnic or linguistic group of urban and rural population or any other segments into which the population can be divided, might also regarded as 'component' projections. Obviously this method- provides estimates of not only the total population bat a%o as regards its age and sex composition.....
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Long range comprehensive planning cannot perhaps be undertaken in a rational and realistic manner unless it bases itself upon the fundamental facts of population growth. This highlights the great significance that attaches to population projections or estimates. At the same time it has to be appreciated that population projection is no easy job and that even the best known demographers' forecasts have more often than not gone wide off the mark. The complexities of the demographic models and formula apart, this limitation is inherent in all the phenomena that concern human beings. It is difficult to define their future. This limitation, therefore, cannot hold the work of population projection at ransom. Population projections are needed and have to be made, of course, without illusions.
Demographers have, though; long and varied experience evolved a number of widely accepted methods of population projection. Most of these methods are highly complex and require expert handling. Many of them call for various data which may not be readily available. These difficulties must, therefore, limit the choice in the selection of a suitable method or methods of population estimation.
A few simpler methods which should, by and large, serve the needs of planners are discussed below:
These methods of calculating current or future population may be broadly divided into the following three groups:
1. Mathematical Methods,
2. Component Method,
3. Ratio Method.
Component Method
Component Method is generally considered the most satisfactory approach to population projection It involves a separate analysis of the changes affecting each component of population viz., fertility, mortality and migration. Separate projections for each ethnic or linguistic group of urban and rural population or any other segments into which the population can be divided, might also regarded as 'component' projections. Obviously this method- provides estimates of not only the total population bat a%o as regards its age and sex composition.....
To Read more...
register as member and login to download attachment [pdf] by right-click the pdf link and Select “Save link as” use for Educational Purposes Only