[Manish Jain]

Guide to demographic survey for regional and urban planning

Long range comprehensive planning cannot perhaps be undertaken in a rational and realistic manner unless it bases itself upon the fundamental facts of population growth. This highlights the great significance that attaches to population projections or estimates. At the same time it has to be appreciated that population projection is no easy job and that even the best known demographers' forecasts have more often than not gone wide off the mark. The complexities of the demographic models and formula apart, this limitation is inherent in all the phenomena that concern human beings. It is difficult to define their future. This limitation, therefore, cannot hold the work of population projection at ransom. Population projections are needed and have to be made, of course, without illusions.


Demographers have, though; long and varied experience evolved a number of widely accepted methods of population projection. Most of these methods are highly complex and require expert handling. Many of them call for various data which may not be readily available. These difficulties must, therefore, limit the choice in the selection of a suitable method or methods of population estimation.
A few simpler methods which should, by and large, serve the needs of planners are discussed below:
These methods of calculating current or future population may be broadly divided into the following three groups:
1. Mathematical Methods,
2. Component Method,
3. Ratio Method.


Component Method

Component Method is generally considered the most satisfactory approach to population projection It involves a separate analysis of the changes affecting each component of population viz., fertility, mortality and migration. Separate projections for each ethnic or linguistic group of urban and rural population or any other segments into which the population can be divided, might also regarded as 'component' projections. Obviously this method- provides estimates of not only the total population bat a%o as regards its age and sex composition.....

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[Mili Jain]

The component method of population projection

The component method of population projection is a widely used method for estimating future population size and structure. This method involves estimating future population size by breaking it down into its component parts, such as births, deaths, and migration. By estimating future trends for each of these components, a complete picture of the future population can be constructed.

The component method of population projection consists of the following steps:

Establishing the base population: The starting point for the projection is to determine the current population size and structure. This includes the number of people by age, sex, and other demographic characteristics.

Estimating future fertility: This involves estimating the number of births that will occur in the future based on current trends and factors such as age-specific fertility rates and changes in family size.

Estimating future mortality: This involves estimating the number of deaths that will occur in the future based on current trends and factors such as age-specific death rates and changes in life expectancy.

Estimating future migration: This involves estimating the number of people who will move into or out of the area being projected, based on current trends and factors such as economic conditions and social factors.

Projecting the population: By combining the estimated future trends for each of the components, a projection of the future population size and structure can be made.

The component method of population projection is a flexible and adaptable method that can be used to estimate the future population of countries, regions, cities, and other geographic areas. It is particularly useful for long-range projections, as it allows for the consideration of future trends and changes in demographic patterns. However, the accuracy of the projection depends on the accuracy of the data used and the assumptions made about future trends, so it is important to be cautious when interpreting the results.